Roy Williams (WR) - Detroit Lions

Lion’s QB, Jon Kitna, threw for 4200 yards last season, and over 20 TDs. Not a big surprise in a Mike Martz offense. One or more of his receivers should have a good year, if that continues. So, in typical MoSneaky fashion, we are telling you to pass on Williams, who looks to be Kitna’s #1 target.

The Bust Explained

Here’s the situation in Detroit. Williams is the bona-fide WR of the bunch. However, he didn’t lead the team in catches last year. Mike Furry hauled in 98 passes, despite having significantly less yards than Roy. What that tells us, is that Kitna likes to use Furry as a possession guy. He runs reliable routes, and makes the tough catch, and as a result, Kitna looks to him often. Now, enter Calvin Johnson. The best thing at the WR position since sliced bread (note: Sliced bread never played the WR position, but it did completely revolutionize the sandwich making indstry, which makes it pretty god damn good). Johnson is big and fast, and will give Kitna a dynamic target on the outside. Opposite Roy Williams. Johnson is going to eat into Williams production more than Furry’s. CJ won’t be running the short routes over the middle. They’ll still use Furry for that. ifyou want a half-assed formula for Johnson’s impact on Williams, take whatever numbers you expect CJ to get, divide by half, and subtract from Williams totals. This formula also works for picking up girls at the bar (Beers you’ve had / 2 - number of beers girl has had = number of beers girl needs before she’ll go home with your sorry ass). Let’s also mention at this point that Roy Williams has had some trouble staying healthy, in the past.

The Risk Factor:

Roy Williams is quite talented. There’s no denying that. however, we don’t really see alot of risk in not taking him. He’s an injury prone WR on an offense that doesn’t produce a whole lot of TDs.

The Strategy:

Roy Williams will be one of the top 10 WRs off the board in your fantasy draft, most likely. That means someone is going to rely on him as their #1 WR. We don’t really feel comfortable in doing that. We’re expecting average to good numbers from him, but certainly not anything that warrants a 3rd round pick in your draft.

Busts

• Bust - Ladell Betts (WAS) - August 23rd, 2007
• Bust - LenDale White (TEN) - August 21st, 2007
• Bust - Simms/Garcia (TB) - August 14th, 2007
• Bust - Isaac Bruce (STL) - August 11th, 2007
• Bust - Shaun Alexander (SEA) - August 9th, 2007
• Bust - Darrell Jackson (SF) - August 7th, 2007
• Bust - LaDanian Tomlinson (SD) - August 3rd, 2007
• Bust - Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) - August 2nd, 2007
• Bust - Brian Westbrook (PHI) - July 31st, 2007
• Bust - Jerry Porter (OAK) - July 27th, 2007
• Bust - Chad Pennington (NYJ) - July 26th, 2007
• Bust - Reuben Droughns (NYG) - July 23rd, 2007
• Bust - Deuce McAllister (NO) - July 20th, 2007
• Bust - Donte’ Stallworth (NE) - July 18th, 2007
• Bust - Tarvaris Jackson (MIN) - July 16th, 2007
• Bust - David Martin (MIA) - July 13th, 2007
• Bust - Eddie Kennison (KC) - July 11th, 2007
• Bust - Marcedes Lewis (Jac) - July 9th, 2007
• Bust - Dallas Clark (IND) - July 6th, 2007
• Bust - Matt Schaub (HOU) - July 4th, 2007
• Bust - Donald Driver (GB) - July 2nd, 2007
• Bust - Travis Henry (DEN) - June 27th, 2007
• Bust - Marion Barber (DAL) - June 25th, 2007
• Bust - Jamal Lewis (CLE) - June 22nd, 2007
• Bust - Rudi Johnson (CIN) - June 20th, 2007
• Bust - Jake Delhomme (CAR) - June 18th, 2007
• Bust - Robbie Gould (CHI) - June 15th, 2007
• Bust - Marshawn Lynch (BUF) - June 13th, 2007
• Bust - Joe Horn - June 11th, 2007
• Bust - Edgerrin James (ARI) - June 7th, 2007
• Bust - Steve McNair - June 5th, 2007
• Busts - May 31st, 2007

Popularity: 9% [?]